Click here for Data Set
Sample
We use IFS data for all the countries with available central government data on
the Deficit, Total Expenditure and Total Revenue (including Grants). Where IFS
data are missing we tried to complement them by using GFS data or alternative
sources. A detailed list of all the adjustments made
to the data appears in Table A1.
To restrict our sample only to democracies, we include only the observations
with a non-negative score in the POLITY IV Level of Democracy index, which is
produced by the
In the former socialist economies in Eastern Europe and the former
Fiscal policy variables
The dependent variables are the following: Balance- calculated as the
difference between Total Revenue & Grants and Total Expenditure. Total
Expenditure- taken from the IFS dataset. Total Revenue & Grants- calculated
as Revenue plus Grants from the IFS dataset. All these variables are
presented as a percentage of GDP, the latter also taken from the IFS dataset.
Election variables
The data on election years and dates, are mainly retrieved from the Institute
for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), "Voter Turnout Since 1945
to Date" (http://www.idea.int/vt/index.cfm).
Additional sources are: The International Foundation for Electoral Systems
(IFES- http://www.electionguide.org),
The Database of Political Institutions (DPI) Version 2000, (a project conducted
by the World Bank) and are complemented by other political data sources.
Our election year variable Elect- is a dummy variable that receives the value 1
in the election year and 0 otherwise.
All our estimations contain fixed country effects, as well as one lag of the
dependent variable. Fixed year effects were tested and removed since they
were not statistically significant and have not affected the main results.
Economic control variables
Trade- the share of international trade, as a percentage of GDP, taken from the
World Development Indicators (WDI) 2002 publication of the World Bank.
Lgdp_pc - the log of real per-capita income. The data for 1975-2001 are taken
directly from the WDI dataset (mentioned above). The data for the years
1960-1975 are computed using the WDI "GDP per capita in constant 1995
US$" series.
Pop1564, Pop65 - Two demographic variables measuring the fraction of a
country's population, ranging between 15 through 64, and above 65,
respectively.
Gdp_rhp - A measure of the output gap, calculated as the difference between
real GDP and its (country specific) trend. The trend was computed using
the Hodrick-Prescott filter on the change in real GDP. Real GDP data were
extracted from the WDI dataset in constant 1995 US$.
Presidential vs. Parliamentary
constitutional rules
The DPI database provides information whether the chief executive responsible
for economic policy, in each country and in each election year, is elected
directly by the public or by parliament. In the former case we define the
electoral rule as Presidential and in the latter as Parliamentary, as in
Persson and Tabellini (2002). Based on this distinction between the
electoral rules we computed the following variables:
Pres - receives the value 1 in a Presidential electoral system, and 0
otherwise.
Parl - receives the value 1 in a Parliamentary electoral system, and 0
otherwise.
Elect_pres - an interaction between Pres and Elect= (Pres)*(Elect).
Elect_parl - an interaction between Parl and Elect= (Parl)*(Elect).
When estimating the Presidential vs. Parliamentary equation, we use both
Elect_pres and Elect_parl variables, together with the economic control
variables, and one lag of the dependent variable.
Proportional vs.
Majoritarian electoral rules
The DPI database provides information, in each country and in each election
year, whether candidates are elected based on the percent of votes received by
their party. In this case they define the electoral system as Proportional
representation and in the other case we define the electoral system as
Majoritarian representation. Based on the distinction between the electoral
systems we computed the following variables:
Prop – receives the value 1 in a Proportional electoral system and 0 otherwise.
Maj – receives the value 1 in a Majoritarian electoral system, and 0 otherwise.
Elect-prop – an interaction between Prop and Elect = (prop)*(Elect)
Elect-maj – an interaction between Maj and Elect = (Maj)*(Elect).
Level of democracy
The analysis regarding the level of democracy was based on the score of each
country in the POLITY IV dataset. We split the sample between these countries
with a score of 0 to 9 and those with a score of 10, because more than 50
percent of the data points represent countries with a score of 10. Where the score
changed during the covered period, we split the data points for that country
according to the score in each year.
Predetermined vs. Endogenous
elections
Based on www. electionworld.com data, that indicate the frequency of elections
in each country, we determined when the next elections should have been held.
If the election were held in the expected year we classified them as
predetermined; otherwise they were classified as endogenous.