Research
Brexit Uncertainty: Trade Externalities Beyond Europe
AEA Papers and Proceedings , forthcoming; with Kyle Handley and Nuno Limão
We examine if Brexit uncertainty has trade externalities beyond Europe. Using detailed data on export values and participation, tariffs, and Brexit probabilities prior to the referendum, we estimate ongoing negative trade-uncertainty elasticities between the United Kingdom (UK) and its non-European partner countries in preferential trade agreements that will require renegotiation post-Brexit. We use them to isolate the impact of the referendum on export values and net entry; we find effects similar to those identified by Graziano et al. (2018) for the UK and EU.
Customs
Journal of International Economics , 96(1), 119-137, 2015; with Jeronimo Carballo and Christian Volpe Martincus
All international trade transactions are processed by custom agencies and such processing takes time. Despite the fact that time is a key trade barrier, the time it takes for shipments to clear customs and how customs' processing times affect firms' exports remain largely unknown. In this paper, we precisely estimate the effects of custom-related delays on firms' exports. In so doing, we use a unique dataset that consists of the universe of Uruguay's export transactions over the period 2002-2011 and includes precise information on the actual time it took for each of these transactions to go through customs. We account for potential endogeneity of these processing times by exploiting the conditional random allocation of shipments to different verification channels associated with the use of risk-based control procedures. Results suggest that delays have a significant negative impact on firms' exports along several dimensions. Effects are more pronounced on sales to newer buyers.
Economic integration agreements and production fragmentation: evidence on the extensive margin
Applied Economics Letters, 22(10), 835-842, 2015, with Juan Blyde and Christian Volpe Martincus
In this article we present evidence on the impact of economic integration agreements (EIAs) on production fragmentation based on a direct measure of offshoring: the number of vertically integrated foreign subsidiaries located in partner countries. We find that EIAs favour the formation of cross-border production networks. Further, this effect is stronger when agreements are deeper.
How do transport costs affect firms' exports? Evidence from a vanishing bridge
Economics Letters, 123(2), 149-153, 2014, with Jeronimo Carballo, Pablo Garcia and Christian Volpe Martincus
In this paper we provide estimates of the effects of international transport costs on firms' exports and disentangle the channels of these effects. In so doing, we use a unique dataset consisting of highly disaggregated transaction-level trade and transport cost data and, in order to account for endogeneity, we exploit the exogenous variation in these costs associated with the non-trade related closure of the main bridge connecting two countries.