Completed Papers
Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: The Role of Heterogeneous Dynamics and Fat Tails
with Juan Antolin-Diaz and Ivan Petrella - Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 238 (2), January 2024
The methodology we develop in this paper is used by the New York Fed in their nowcasting model: see this note and this blog post
Published paper | Latest working paper |
Superseded earlier version (CEPR working paper) |
Virtual presentation of earlier version (Youtube)
Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 15 (2), April 2023, pp. 1-34. Lead Article.
Published paper |
Latest working paper |
Online appendix |
Replication kit (dropbox link)
Agnostic Structural Disturbances (ASDs): Detecting and Reducing Misspecification in Empirical Macroeconomic Models
With Wouter Den Haan - Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 117, January 2021, pp. 258-277.
Published paper |
Longer working paper version |
Simple explainer about misspecification in macroeconomics |
VoxEU column
Monetary Policy for Commodity Booms and Busts
With Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro - Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2019.
Paper |
Discussion by Wei Xiong (Princeton) |
VoxEU column |
Bloomberg coverage
Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies
With Silvana Tenreyro - Journal of International Economics, Vol. 112, May 2018, pp. 200-218.
Published paper |
Replication files (zip) |
VoxEU column
Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth
With Juan Antolin-Diaz and Ivan Petrella - Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 99(2), May 2017, pp. 343-256.
Published paper |
Financial Times coverage |
The Telegraph coverage |
growthecon blog coverage (Dietz Vollrath) |
longandvariable blog coverage (Tony Yates) |
VoxEU column
Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?
With Itamar Drechsler, David Marques Ibanez and Philipp Schnabl - Journal of Finance, Vol. 71(5), October 2016, pp. 1933-1974. Lead Article.
Published paper