Working Papers / Work in Progress

Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Revision requested
> Presentation slides

Income Inequality, Financial Intermediation, and Small Firms
with Sebastian Doerr and Donggyu Lee
Presentation slides

Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: Secular Trends, Large Shocks and New Data
with Juan Antolin-Diaz and Ivan Petrella
Presentation slides
> 30-min virtual presentation of earlier version (YouTube)

The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom
with Ben Broadbent, Federico Di Pace, Richard Harrison and Silvana Tenreyro
Revision requested
> Presentation slides
> VOX column
> Data for UK tradable and nontradable sectors (xls)
> Media/blog coverage:  Financial Times | Repec blog | UK in a Changing Europe

Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints and Pecuniary Externalities
with Seho Kim

Completed papers

Monetary Policy for Commodity Booms and Busts
with Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro
Prepared for the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2019
> Discussion by Wei Xiong (Princeton)
> VOX column
> Media coverage:  Bloomberg
Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies
with Silvana Tenreyro
Journal of International Economics, Vol. 112, May 2018, pp. 200-218.
VOX column
> Replication files (zip)

Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth
with Juan Antolin-Diaz and Ivan Petrella
Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 99(2), May 2017, pp. 343-256.
> Online Appendix
> VOX column
> Media/blog coverage:  Financial Times (Gavyn Davies) | The Telegraph
growthecon (Dietz Vollrath)  |
longandvariable (Tony Yates)


Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?
with Itamar Drechsler, David Marques Ibanez and Philipp Schnabl
Journal of Finance, Vol. 71(5), October 2016, pp. 1933-1974. Lead Article.


Nontechnical policy notes

Are Standard Macro and Credit Policies Enough to Deal with the Economic Fallout from a Global Pandemic? A Proposal for a Negative SME Tax
with Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan
This is a policy note on supporting small businesses during the Covid-19 pandemic, which we wrote in March 2020
> VOX column | ECONFIP | SUERF

Papers on German Politics (just for fun)