Working Papers

Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data

R&R at the Review of Economic Studies

Paper | Slides | Data on President-Fed interactions (xlsx) | VoxEU column | column

Media coverage: Financial Times Alphaville | Bloomberg Economics | Bloomberg TV Interview | CNBC Video | Politico Morning Money | | American Enterprise Institute | Handelsblatt (German) | Beyond the Obvious Podcast (German) | Folha de Sao Paulo (Portuguese) | Polish News

Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach

with Boragan Aruoba

Paper | Slides | Fed sentiments, monetary policy shocks, Greenbook forecast errors, FOMC composition (xlsx) | VoxEU column

Income Inequality and Job Creation

with Sebastian Doerr and Donggyu Lee - R&R at the Review of Economic Studies

Paper | Slides | NY Fed Liberty Street Economics Blog | VoxEU column | EFIP Policy Brief | SUERF Policy Brief

The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom

with Ben Broadbent, Federico Di Pace, Richard Harrison and Silvana Tenreyro - Forthcoming at the Review of Economic Studies

Paper | Data on UK tradable & nontradable sectors (xls) | Full replication kit | VoxEU column | Video explainer ( | Financial Times Mention | Repec Blog | UK in a Changing Europe Blog

Macroprudential Policy with Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints

with Seho Kim - Conditionally accepted at the Journal of Monetary Economics

Paper | Slides

The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices

with Boragan Aruoba

Paper | Slides

Completed Papers

Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: The Role of Heterogeneous Dynamics and Fat Tails

with Juan Antolin-Diaz and Ivan Petrella - Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 238 (2), January 2024

The methodology we develop in this paper is used by the New York Fed in their nowcasting model: see this note and this blog post

Published paper | Latest working paper | Superseded earlier version (CEPR working paper) | Virtual presentation of earlier version (Youtube)

Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 15 (2), April 2023, pp. 1-34. Lead Article.

Published paper | Latest working paper | Online appendix | Replication kit (dropbox link)

Agnostic Structural Disturbances (ASDs): Detecting and Reducing Misspecification in Empirical Macroeconomic Models

With Wouter Den Haan - Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 117, January 2021, pp. 258-277.

Published paper | Longer working paper version | Simple explainer about misspecification in macroeconomics | VoxEU column

Monetary Policy for Commodity Booms and Busts

With Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro - Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2019.

Paper | Discussion by Wei Xiong (Princeton) | VoxEU column | Bloomberg coverage

Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies

With Silvana Tenreyro - Journal of International Economics, Vol. 112, May 2018, pp. 200-218.

Published paper | Replication files (zip) | VoxEU column

Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth

With Juan Antolin-Diaz and Ivan Petrella - Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 99(2), May 2017, pp. 343-256.

Published paper | Financial Times coverage | The Telegraph coverage | growthecon blog coverage (Dietz Vollrath) | longandvariable blog coverage (Tony Yates) | VoxEU column

Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?

With Itamar Drechsler, David Marques Ibanez and Philipp Schnabl - Journal of Finance, Vol. 71(5), October 2016, pp. 1933-1974. Lead Article.

Published paper

Other papers and policy notes

Are Standard Macro and Credit Policies Enough to Deal with the Economic Fallout from a Global Pandemic? A Proposal for a Negative SME Tax

With Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan - This is a policy note on supporting small businesses during the Covid-19 pandemic, which we wrote in March 2020

Note | VoxEU column | EFIP Policy Brief | SUERF Policy Brief

The GroKo Effect: Does the Popularity of CDU/CSU and SPD Suffer from Grand Coalitions?

This is a mini paper about German politics which I wrote for fun in 2018 as a grad student

Paper draft | Data on German federal and state government coalitions